Are you always jumping into conclusions?

Reason

Pioneered by psychologists Chris Argyris, the Ladder of Inference describes how we quickly and unconsciously move from the facts of a situation to a conclusion (and why our conclusions are sometimes wrong).

Rationale

Climbing the Ladder of Inference:

Starting at the bottom of the ladder, we have reality and facts. From there, we:

1. Experience these selectively based on our beliefs and prior experience.

2. Interpret what they mean.

3. Apply our existing assumptions, sometimes without considering them.

4. Draw conclusions based on the interpreted facts and our assumptions.

5. Develop beliefs based on these conclusions.

6. Take actions that seem "right" because they are based on what we believe.

This can create a vicious circle. Our beliefs have a big effect on how we select from reality, and can lead us to ignore the true facts altogether.

By using the Ladder of Inference, you can learn to get back to the facts and use your beliefs and experiences to positive effect, rather than allowing them to narrow your field of judgment.

How can I avoid jumping into conclusions?

1. Use the Ladder of Inference at any stage of your thinking process. The model may prove a useful aid to help you consider whether you're making the "right" conclusion.

2. Question your reasoning and face the facts and reality of the circumstances. Ask yourself what and why you are thinking something.

3. Work up the ladder again with a wider field of data and more reasonable assumptions to check that your argument is sound.

Role Play

1) After what actions do we usually jump into a conclusion?

• after a pre-emptive analysis of internal and external environments.

• after taking the inputs of all party and reaching a decision.

• after we’ve observed reality, interpreted our version of it, and applied our pre-existing assumptions.

• after we form our beliefs and actions about the whole circumstance.

2) In the ‘filtering and selecting reality’ rung, we are:

• analysing each person’s point of view and picking the most accurate.

• removing all cognitive biases to assess the situation practically.

• dismissing all instant solutions and options to dig deeper.

• automatically and constantly filtering out data that seems irrelevant based on our beliefs and prior experiences.

3) Questioning your assumptions explicitly can help with:

• making others understand that your perception of reality is correct.

• slowing down, explaining your thinking process, and providing real clarity.

• help make quick decisions and jump onto the next step.

• remaining in sync with everyone on their assumptions.

Learning of the Day

In today's fast-moving world, we are always under pressure to act now, rather than spend time reasoning things through and thinking about the true facts.

Not only can this lead us to a wrong conclusion, but it can also cause conflict with other people on the reality of things, which is why its so important to understand how we’re inferring the world.